1206 Gearwood Ave

Durham, NC 27701

$579,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · Built 2025 · MultiFamily · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,901/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,036
• Tax + insurance: −$449
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,029
• Net cashflow: $387/mo
• Annual: $4,640/yr
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.86%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $162,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $579k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $490k (15.4% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($570k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $490k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#15 in NC, #1,411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Durham Public Schools (urban): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #132 of 178 in NC (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Riverside High (math 49% / reading 42%, grade D-, #347 of 535 statewide, top 65%, 1,812 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,905 units permitted in Durham County in 2024 (955 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Durham County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $579k implies a 662% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.0% in Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,901/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1402% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.