7437 SE Jamestown Ter #1304

Hobe Sound, FL 33455

$229,000D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,384 sqft · Built 1982 · Townhouse · Pending · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,409/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax + insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$525
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-219/mo
• Annual: $-2,626/yr
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.09%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $64,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $229k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (16.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $229k).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#497 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $190k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.3% in Hobe Sound — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.