3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,171 sqft ·
Built 2002
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 136 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$18,827/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$7,074
Tax + insurance
−$1,088
HOA
−$10
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$3,954
Net cashflow
$6,701/mo
Annual
$80,415/yr
Cap rate
12.25%
Cash-on-cash
21.29%
DSCR
1.95
1% rule
1.40%
Cash to close
$377,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.35M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($80k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.35M).
It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.19M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.19M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $128k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $119k appreciation (8.8% local appreciation)).
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#969 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, schools D+, amenities F.
Westhampton Beach Union Free School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #81 of 590 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (8.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $378k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$206k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 9.0% in Westhampton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $18,827/mo this rent would consume 149% of the median local household income ($151k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PN2QW37YC46W7A
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29