45297 Universal Ct

Shelby, MI 48317

$214,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,268 sqft · Built 1986 · Townhouse · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,790/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,122
• Tax + insurance: −$357
• HOA: −$375
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-440/mo
• Annual: $-5,280/yr
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.81%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $59,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $214k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-440 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (29.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (16.4% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $150k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#324 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Utica Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #923 of 1,397 statewide, top 69%, 483 students, 78% FRL); Utica High School (math 33% / reading 62%, grade D, #185 of 713 statewide, top 26%, 1,368 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 26% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $214k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.