45297 Universal Ct

Shelby, MI 48317

$219,997F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,268 sqft · Built 1986 · Townhouse · Active · 145 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,690/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$367
• HOA: −$375
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-560/mo
• Annual: $-6,725/yr
• Cap rate: 3.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.92%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $61,599

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $220k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-560 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (36.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (23.2% below list).
• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $139k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#324 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Utica Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #923 of 1,397 statewide, top 69%, 483 students, 78% FRL); Utica High School (math 33% / reading 62%, grade D, #185 of 713 statewide, top 26%, 1,368 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 26% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 113 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 35d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 33y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $220k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.