5556 E KY 70

Liberty, KY 42539

$125,400C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,116/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$658
• Tax + insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $118/mo
• Annual: $1,421/yr
• Cap rate: 7.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.05%
• DSCR: 1.18
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $35,112

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (11.0% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($867 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#185 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Casey County (rural): math 39% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #39 of 165 in KY (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 399 students, 68% FRL); Casey County Middle School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #80 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 513 students, 68% FRL); Casey County High School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #21 of 254 statewide, top 10%, 607 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP.
• Casey County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $85k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.7% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.