28 Eldridge Ave

Johnson City, NY 13790

$185,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1937 · SingleFamily · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,753/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$453
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-456/yr
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.88%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-456/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (5.2% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#238 in NY, #3,739 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Johnson City Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnson City Elementary/Primary School (496 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.5%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $185k implies a 118% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.