1465 Heritage Lndg #102

St. Charles, MO 63303

$152,500D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,327 sqft · Built 1979 · Condo · Pending · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,932/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$800
• Tax + insurance: −$254
• HOA: −$550
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-78/mo
• Annual: $-934/yr
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.19%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $42,700

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $152k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-934/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (7.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Francis Howell R-III (suburban): math 53% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #11 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 200 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.4% in St. Charles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: kitchen backsplash — tiled backsplash in need of cleaning
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — standard fixtures in need of cleaning
• Moderate: exterior siding — visible wear on stucco siding
• Minor: landscaping — bare landscaping, gravel driveway