316 Arbor Ave

Williamson, IA 50272

$85,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 665 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $790/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$166
• Net cashflow: $105/mo
• Annual: $1,261/yr
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.30%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $79k (7.0% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $79k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#954 in IA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Chariton Community School District (town): math 57% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #241 of 289 in IA (top 83%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lucas County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.