1145 Carriage Cir Apt 104

Bristol, VA 24201

$101,500C

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 968 sqft · Built 1979 · Condo · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,159/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$532
• Tax + insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$225
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $78/mo
• Annual: $933/yr
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.28%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $28,420

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $102k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($933/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $102k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $702 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#140 in VA, #4,544 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
• Bristol City Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #53 of 131 in VA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15 units permitted in Bristol city in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bristol County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.9% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?