320 Agee Ln

Cumberland, VA 23040

$274,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,640 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,499/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-433/mo
• Annual: $-5,202/yr
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.76%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $76,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-433 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (45.5% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (45.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#499 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Cumberland County Public School District (rural): math 33% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #113 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.0% in Cumberland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.