4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,248 sqft ·
Built 1940
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 263 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,836/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$996
Tax + insurance
−$355
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$385
Net cashflow
$99/mo
Annual
$1,190/yr
Cap rate
6.92%
Cash-on-cash
2.24%
DSCR
1.10
1% rule
0.97%
Cash to close
$53,172
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $99 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (3.3% below list).
It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#444 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
Oldmans Township School District (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #230 of 612 in NJ (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Salem County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Salem County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $120k; list at $190k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PQGS7E7P1X6Q77
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29