40 Henry St

Hilton, NY 14468

$169,900D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,648/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$455
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-44/mo
• Annual: $-524/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.10%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-524/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (3.0% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $162k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#324 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hilton Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #219 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $170k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.7% in Hilton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.