16 bd · 8.0 ba ·
5,312 sqft ·
Built 1968
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 129 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$9,285/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,195
Tax + insurance
−$1,066
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,950
Net cashflow
$2,074/mo
Annual
$24,883/yr
Cap rate
9.40%
Cash-on-cash
11.11%
DSCR
1.49
1% rule
1.16%
Cash to close
$224,000
Investor read
This is a 8 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $800k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive. Per door: $259/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $800k).
It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($704k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $704k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 285 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $55k; list at $800k implies a 1367% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $224k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $9,285/mo this rent would consume 211% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 1354% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
CashFlowRE · CFR-PRNV492B6X3TPR
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29