3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,221 sqft ·
Built 1958
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 25 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,345/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$786
Tax + insurance
−$234
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$282
Net cashflow
$42/mo
Annual
$504/yr
Cap rate
6.63%
Cash-on-cash
1.20%
DSCR
1.05
1% rule
0.90%
Cash to close
$41,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($504/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (10.3% below list).
It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $135k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Ramey El (math 34% / reading 24%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 541 students, 95% FRL); Boulter Middle (math 28% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 853 students, 93% FRL); Tyler H S (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,164 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 66% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.5% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PRVP6B9700HC05
· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29