506 Alsey Smith Rd

Alsey, IL 62610

$90,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,075 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,022/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $215/mo
• Annual: $2,586/yr
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.26%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $215 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,275 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Winchester CUSD 1 (rural): math 26% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #281 of 620 in IL (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Winchester High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #528 of 693 statewide, top 82%, 165 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 36% district-wide (36 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 28% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Winchester CUSD 1 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP.
• Scott County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $90k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.