15 Decatur St

Cumberland, MD 21502

$175,000B

15 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,520 sqft · Built 1890 · MultiFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,324/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$698
• Net cashflow: $1,576/mo
• Annual: $18,913/yr
• Cap rate: 17.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.60%
• DSCR: 2.72
• 1% rule: 1.90%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 2×2bd/1ba + 1×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive. Per door: $525/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#64 in MD, #2,385 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $175k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 6.7% in Cumberland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,324/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 824% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.