233 Southbury Rd

Heritage Village, CT 06783

$1,795,000B+

5 bd · 6.0 ba · 5,447 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Active · 170 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $35,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,413
• Tax + insurance: −$2,258
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,350
• Net cashflow: $15,978/mo
• Annual: $191,741/yr
• Cap rate: 16.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.15%
• DSCR: 2.70
• 1% rule: 1.95%
• Cash to close: $502,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/6.0-bath single-family listed at $1.79M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16k ($192k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($35k rent vs $1.79M).
• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.58M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.58M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $12k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $54k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#112 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Regional School District 12 (rural): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #20 of 153 in CT (top 13%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Northwest Hills Planning Region in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $503k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 3.0% in Heritage Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.