14932 Perdido Dr

Alafaya, FL 32828

$459,000D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,713 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
• Tax + insurance: −$425
• HOA: −$43
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $-307/mo
• Annual: $-3,687/yr
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.87%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $128,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $459k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-307 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $405k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (29.2% below list).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($431k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $325k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #1,076 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 320 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $142k; list at $459k implies a 223% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Alafaya — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.