3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,280 sqft ·
Built 1944
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 301 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,305/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$697
Tax + insurance
−$125
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$274
Net cashflow
$209/mo
Annual
$2,510/yr
Cap rate
8.18%
Cash-on-cash
6.74%
DSCR
1.30
1% rule
0.98%
Cash to close
$37,240
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $133k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (1.9% below list).
It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $117k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $920 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime F.
Decatur City (urban): math 22% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #66 of 129 in AL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 231 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Morgan County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 8481% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $79k; list at $133k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.0% in Decatur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PV71K75CDDZZ09
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29