104 Scotland Rd

Madison Center, CT 06443

$769,000F

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,108 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,128/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,033
• Tax + insurance: −$985
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$657
• Net cashflow: $-2,547/mo
• Annual: $-30,559/yr
• Cap rate: 2.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.19%
• DSCR: 0.37
• 1% rule: 0.41%
• Cash to close: $215,320

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $769k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (58.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (59.3% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $313k (59.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#33 in CT, #2,238 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: amenities C-, housing C-, cost of living F.
• Madison School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #10 of 153 in CT (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Daniel Hand High School (math 69% / reading 86%, grade A-, #8 of 194 statewide, top 4%, 828 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $465k; list at $769k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 3.4% in Madison Center — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.