4711 Pennington Ave

Baltimore, MD 21226

$224,500D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · Built 1900 · Townhouse · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,997/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,177
• Tax + insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $196/mo
• Annual: $2,352/yr
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.74%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $62,860

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $224k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (11.0% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 125% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $224k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.