44373 Elmer Magee Rd

Tylertown, MS 70438

$120,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Active · 127 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,357/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $333/mo
• Annual: $3,998/yr
• Cap rate: 9.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.90%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#46 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Washington Parish (rural): math 27% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #38 of 98 in LA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 10 units permitted in Washington Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 11 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 8176% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $120k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.1% in Tylertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.