5378 Railroad St

Durhamville, NY 13054

$135,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,416 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,235/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$349
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-82/mo
• Annual: $-983/yr
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.60%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-983/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (8.5% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $121k (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#693 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Oneida City School District (town): math 43% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #421 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Durhamville School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,195 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 217 students, 60% FRL); Otto L Shortell Middle School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 391 students, 53% FRL); Oneida Senior High School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A, #311 of 1,100 statewide, top 30%, 564 students, 43% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.