178 Elephant Rd Unit B11

Dublin, PA 18917

$225,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · Built 1985 · Townhouse · Pending · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,979/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$288
• HOA: −$220
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-125/mo
• Annual: $-1,495/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (12.0% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#1,201 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pennridge SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #112 of 539 in PA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $132k; list at $225k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Dublin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.