1802 Highway 6&50 #15

Fruita, CO 81521

$42,500B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,669/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$223
• Tax + insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$580
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $445/mo
• Annual: $5,335/yr
• Cap rate: 18.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.83%
• DSCR: 2.99
• 1% rule: 3.93%
• Cash to close: $11,900

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $42k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $445 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $42k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $42k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $294 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#54 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rim Rock Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #405 of 966 statewide, top 43%, 332 students, 37% FRL); Fruita Middle School (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #164 of 270 statewide, top 61%, 496 students, 32% FRL); Fruita Monument High School (math 38% / reading 62%, grade D+, #95 of 381 statewide, top 25%, 1,304 students, 18% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 251 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $42k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 3.0% in Fruita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.