221 North St

Erving, MA 01344

$249,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,961/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-28/mo
• Annual: $-338/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-338/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (21.5% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $196k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Erving (town): math 25% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #329 of 371 in MA (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Erving Elementary (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #819 of 938 statewide, top 88%, 129 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 33% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 35% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Erving average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 89 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $250k implies a 127% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.