35519 N Moyes Rd

Queen Creek, AZ 85144

$849,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,492 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,600/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax + insurance: −$630
• HOA: −$77
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,176
• Net cashflow: $-740/mo
• Annual: $-8,878/yr
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.73%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $237,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $850k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-740 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $719k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $560k (34.1% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($837k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $560k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $91k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $85k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#27 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: San Tan Heights Elementary (math 15% / reading 20%, grade F, #803 of 1,109 statewide, top 73%, 668 students, 55% FRL); San Tan Foothills High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 824 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 488 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 6 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $440k; list at $850k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$146k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.6% in Queen Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.