4415 Camp Mineola Rd

Mattituck, NY 11952

$2,549,000B

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,930 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 287 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $35,415/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,367
• Tax + insurance: −$2,053
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,437
• Net cashflow: $12,516/mo
• Annual: $150,191/yr
• Cap rate: 12.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.04%
• DSCR: 1.94
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $713,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.55M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($150k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($35k rent vs $2.55M).
• It's been on market 287 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.24M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.24M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $18k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $76k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#461 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $301k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $714k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 4.0% in Mattituck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 287 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.