126 Saginaw Cir

Cherokee Village, AR 72529

$178,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,616/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$936
• Tax + insurance: −$298
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $43/mo
• Annual: $521/yr
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $49,980

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($521/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (9.4% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#227 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Highland School District (town): math 43% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #66 of 238 in AR (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cherokee Elementary School (math 58% / reading 40%, grade D, #108 of 454 statewide, top 24%, 594 students, 100% FRL); Highland Middle School (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #105 of 201 statewide, top 52%, 492 students, 100% FRL); Highland High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #62 of 292 statewide, top 21%, 526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 56% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 698 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4 units permitted in Sharp County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sharp County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $178k implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.