61189 Dogwood Dr

Lacombe, LA 70445

$139,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,445 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,510/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$664
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $-205/mo
• Annual: $-2,456/yr
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.80%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (25.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#188 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chahta-Ima Elementary School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #224 of 646 statewide, top 37%, 325 students, 67% FRL); L.P. Monteleone Junior High School (math 48% / reading 69%, grade B, #13 of 218 statewide, top 6%, 422 students, 36% FRL); Lakeshore High School (math 42% / reading 61%, grade D+, #35 of 265 statewide, top 13%, 949 students, 34% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.2% in Lacombe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.