3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,182 sqft ·
Built 1961
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 163 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,230/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$420
Tax + insurance
−$115
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$258
Net cashflow
$437/mo
Annual
$5,246/yr
Cap rate
12.85%
Cash-on-cash
23.42%
DSCR
2.04
1% rule
1.54%
Cash to close
$22,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $9k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
At $1,230/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 1099% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-PZ7Y4RCQJQDHS0
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29