533 E 23rd St

Hialeah, FL 33013

$515,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Pending · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,907/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax + insurance: −$858
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$820
• Net cashflow: $-473/mo
• Annual: $-5,674/yr
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.94%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $144,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $515k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-473 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $447k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $391k (24.1% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $391k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#288 in FL, #4,774 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, employment D-.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hialeah Elementary School (math 40% / reading 49%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 740 students, 75% FRL); Henry H. Filer Middle School (math 31% / reading 35%, grade F, #437 of 571 statewide, top 77%, 603 students, 72% FRL); Westland Hialeah Senior High School (math 27% / reading 33%, grade F, #441 of 667 statewide, top 67%, 1,098 students, 75% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $515k implies a 1843% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.5% in Hialeah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.