17 Magnolia St

Woodbury, NJ 08093

$147,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 828 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 175 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,821/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$771
• Tax + insurance: −$326
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $341/mo
• Annual: $4,093/yr
• Cap rate: 9.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.95%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $41,160

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $147k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $147k).
• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#163 in NJ, #4,241 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Deptford Township Public School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #326 of 472 in NJ (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,047 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (183 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 11 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.3% in Woodbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.