PEARCE Plan

Greenville, NC 27834

$225,990D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,424 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 963 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,977/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,172
• Tax + insurance: −$373
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $17/mo
• Annual: $200/yr
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.32%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $62,599

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $226k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($200/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (12.5% below list).
• It's been on market 963 days — a 12% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#30 in NC, #2,977 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Pitt County Schools (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #100 of 178 in NC (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeforest Elementary (math 22% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,410 statewide, top 77%, 804 students, 98% FRL); Farmville Middle (math 31% / reading 35%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 611 students, 100% FRL); Farmville Central High (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 789 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 56% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,300 units permitted in Pitt County in 2024 (204 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Greenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,977/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 3319% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 963 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.