1409 Indian Trl

Harker Heights, TX 76548

$84,500B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,952 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,885/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$443
• Tax + insurance: −$328
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $718/mo
• Annual: $8,617/yr
• Cap rate: 16.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.42%
• DSCR: 2.62
• 1% rule: 2.23%
• Cash to close: $23,660

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $84k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $83k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $584 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#61 in TX, #2,271 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nolanville El (math 45% / reading 50%, grade D, #989 of 4,322 statewide, top 23%, 655 students, 51% FRL); Eastern Hills Middle (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 610 students, 72% FRL); Harker Heights H S (math 29% / reading 60%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,359 students, 34% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 272 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 3.8% in Harker Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.