83 Deer Cir

Quemado, NM 87829

$82,000C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Built 2011 · Other · Active · 130 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $778/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax + insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$163
• Net cashflow: $48/mo
• Annual: $572/yr
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.49%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $22,960

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $82k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($572/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (5.2% below list).
• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $72k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($567 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#336 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Quemado Independent Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #10 of 29 in NM (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP.
• Catron County population projected at -52% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.