4485 Ashville Rd

Walnut Grove, AL 35952

$99,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,487/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $484/mo
• Annual: $5,813/yr
• Cap rate: 12.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.78%
• DSCR: 1.92
• 1% rule: 1.49%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#396 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Etowah County (suburban): math 21% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #36 of 129 in AL (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Etowah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Etowah County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $100k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.