1 bd · 2.0 ba ·
847 sqft ·
Built 1927
· Condo
· Active
· 105 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$12,536/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,570
Tax + insurance
−$817
HOA
−$2,090
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$2,633
Net cashflow
$4,427/mo
Annual
$53,130/yr
Cap rate
17.14%
Cash-on-cash
38.72%
DSCR
2.72
1% rule
2.56%
Cash to close
$137,200
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $490k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($53k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $490k).
It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($446k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $446k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#474 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
Montauk Union Free School District (town): math 50% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #311 of 755 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $137k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 7.9% in Montauk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $12,536/mo this rent would consume 105% of the median local household income ($143k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29