25348 Stoneham Creek Dr

Stagecoach, TX 77355

$304,490F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,912 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,176/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,597
• Tax + insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$71
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-211/mo
• Annual: $-2,526/yr
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.96%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $85,257

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $304k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (28.5% below list).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,010 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 553 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.2% in Stagecoach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.