3421 Overcup Oak Ter

Sarasota, FL 34237

$125,900B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,065 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Pending · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,818/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$660
• Tax + insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$210
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $454/mo
• Annual: $5,448/yr
• Cap rate: 10.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.46%
• DSCR: 1.69
• 1% rule: 1.44%
• Cash to close: $35,252

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $126k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $126k).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $870 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#121 in FL, #1,854 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: crime F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.0%/yr); 179 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.