3041 Falls St

Niagara Falls, NY 14303

$65,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,442 sqft · Built 1932 · Townhouse · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,527/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$569
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $297/mo
• Annual: $3,560/yr
• Cap rate: 20.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.92%
• DSCR: 3.22
• 1% rule: 2.35%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $65k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.