2920 Lakewood Dr

Jackson, MS 39212

$69,900C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,353/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$197
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $506/mo
• Annual: $6,069/yr
• Cap rate: 16.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.08%
• DSCR: 2.56
• 1% rule: 1.94%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $506 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Peeples Middle School (math 11% / reading 15%, grade F, #141 of 179 statewide, top 79%, 298 students, 100% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.