119 Ships Watch Dr Lot 40

Duck, NC 27949

$58,500D

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,720 sqft · Built 1990 · Condo · Active · 426 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$307
• Tax + insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,134
• Net cashflow: $3,862/mo
• Annual: $46,341/yr
• Cap rate: 85.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 282.91%
• DSCR: 13.59
• 1% rule: 9.23%
• Cash to close: $16,380

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath condo listed at $58k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($46k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $58k).
• It's been on market 426 days — a 12% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $51k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $404 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#162 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Dare County Schools (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #77 of 178 in NC (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 371 units permitted in Dare County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dare County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 12 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 85.5% vs local median 1.2% in Duck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 426 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.