16717 Doyle Dr

Oklahoma City, OK 73012

$380,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,099 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,183/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax + insurance: −$531
• HOA: −$108
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $-118/mo
• Annual: $-1,410/yr
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $106,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $359k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (16.2% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $318k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#3 in OK, #1,635 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Deer Creek (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #4 of 270 in OK (top 2%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Rose Union Es (math 72% / reading 52%, grade B, #6 of 845 statewide, top 1%, 606 students, 0% FRL); Deer Creek Hs (math 39% / reading 51%, grade D-, #13 of 447 statewide, top 3%, 2,036 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 645 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,365 units permitted in Oklahoma County in 2024 (569 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oklahoma County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $259k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.7% in Oklahoma City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.