2915 Segovia St

Coral Gables, FL 33134

$1,299,000F

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,496 sqft · Built 1948 · MultiFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,522/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,812
• Tax + insurance: −$1,622
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,580
• Net cashflow: $-2,491/mo
• Annual: $-29,896/yr
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.22%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $363,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $1.30M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-30k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $859k (33.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $752k (42.1% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $752k (42.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in FL, #646 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: George W. Carver Elementary School (math 72% / reading 77%, grade A, #230 of 2,144 statewide, top 12%, 566 students, 28% FRL); Ponce De Leon Middle School (math 36% / reading 55%, grade D+, #305 of 571 statewide, top 54%, 888 students, 60% FRL); Coral Gables Senior High School (math 31% / reading 53%, grade F, #275 of 667 statewide, top 42%, 2,824 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 64% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 306 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $390k; list at $1.30M implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 0.6% in Coral Gables — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,522/mo this rent would consume 90% of the median local household income ($100k/yr) (locally 1812% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.