651 E First St

Calico Rock, AR 72519

$109,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 174 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-378/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $30,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $109k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-378/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $80k (26.6% below list).
• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $80k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($754 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#55 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Calico Rock School District (rural): math 33% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #108 of 238 in AR (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calico Rock Elementary School (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #254 of 454 statewide, top 59%, 201 students, 79% FRL); Calico Rock High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #48 of 292 statewide, top 19%, 184 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 52% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Izard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Izard County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.