4201 Topanga Canyon Blvd #21

Topanga, CA 91364

$299,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 77 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,436/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-142/mo
• Annual: $-1,704/yr
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.04%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (18.5% below list).
• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $244k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#846 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Las Virgenes Unified (suburban): math 55% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #58 of 517 in CA (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Chaparral Elementary (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A, #91 of 1,571 statewide, top 6%, 537 students, 18% FRL); Alice C. Stelle Middle (math 40% / reading 68%, grade B-, #79 of 498 statewide, top 16%, 760 students, 17% FRL); Calabasas High (math 34% / reading 70%, grade D+, #296 of 1,170 statewide, top 27%, 1,817 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 185 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.6% in Topanga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.