2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
846 sqft ·
Built 1941
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 106 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,097/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$157
Tax + insurance
−$34
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$230
Net cashflow
$675/mo
Annual
$8,100/yr
Cap rate
33.29%
Cash-on-cash
96.43%
DSCR
5.29
1% rule
3.66%
Cash to close
$8,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $675 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $27k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $213 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#206 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, commute F.
Lawton (urban): math 20% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 270 in OK (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Lincoln Es (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #741 of 845 statewide, top 89%, 401 students, 0% FRL); Lawton Hs (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #302 of 447 statewide, top 68%, 1,417 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 54% district-wide (54 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 33.3% vs local median 6.1% in Lawton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29