10401 N Saguaro Blvd #323

Fountain Hills, AZ 85268

$299,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Built 1998 · Condo · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$210
• HOA: −$395
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-80/mo
• Annual: $-963/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.15%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-963/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (11.4% below list).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $265k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#45 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Fountain Hills Unified District (4247) (other): math 32% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #61 of 249 in AZ (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Mcdowell Mountain Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #243 of 1,109 statewide, top 23%, 297 students, 32% FRL); Fountain Hills Middle School (math 31% / reading 45%, grade F, #54 of 218 statewide, top 25%, 390 students, 22% FRL); Fountain Hills High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #84 of 381 statewide, top 23%, 466 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 453 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $136k; list at $299k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in Fountain Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?