36 Kelley Rd

Orono, ME 04473

$279,000D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,599 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 157 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,516/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$540
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-15/mo
• Annual: $-182/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.23%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-182/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (9.8% below list).
• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#49 in ME) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• RSU 26 (suburban): math 88% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #39 of 112 in ME (top 35%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 440 units permitted in Penobscot County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Penobscot County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $76k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,516/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 423% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.